 “Strategic foresight.” It sounds like a generic term, doesn’t it? A business leader with insight into the future marketplace may be said to have it. National leaders and military generals may have it too. But strategic foresight is also a field of study. A search of the academic literature reveals over 100 peer-reviewed articles with the term in their titles. For those wishing to investigate, many are published in the journals of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, and Futures. However, let me save you some time by highlighting a recent article by Iden, Methlie, & Christensen (2017) which provides an excellent summary of the field. First, it offers a sound definition. “Strategic foresight involves understanding the future and applying future oriented insights to an organization’s strategic activities and decision making.” I like this definition as it positions strategic foresight as component of the broader field of strategic management. Second, it summarizes 59 other journal articles, organizing them into the broad categories of approaches, adoption, and outcomes.
One of the most popular approaches for strategic foresight is that of scenario planning. As described by Peter Schwartz (1991) in The Art of the Long View, scenarios are hypothetical, yet richly realistic stories about alternative plausible futures. We're talking about 15-20 years out here, well beyond the typical 3-5 year strategic plan. Think oil and gas prices, and artificial intelligence. Here, uncertainty reigns, and therefore multiple futures must be considered to inform near-term decision making. Thomas Chermack (2011) provides a more recent book entitled Scenario Planning in Organizations, offering a practical five-phase process for creating, using, and assessing scenarios. So how does this apply to you? The answer lies in another question. What's the time horizon of your strategic plan or business plan? If near-term, as in three years or less, the future may be sufficiently predictable to plan and execute in a linear fashion. But if long-term, as in five years or more, you may be facing risks and uncertainties that can only be dealt with through the techniques involved in strategic foresight. Which will you choose? References Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario Planning in Organizations. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler Publishers. Iden, J., Methlie, L. B., & Christensen, G. E. (2017). The nature of strategic foresight research: A systematic literature review. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 116, 87-97. Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View. New York: Crown Business. |